Betting Against Solar? History Says You’ll Lose

By Tom McCalmont

Reflections after reading Gregory F. Nemet’s How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation.

I recently finished How Solar Became Cheap, a fascinating book that traces the improbable rise of solar power from niche technology to global energy workhorse. As someone who’s lived much of that history from the inside, the book struck me as both a reminder of how far we’ve come and a roadmap for where we’re going.

One phrase from the book really stuck with me: the “solarcoaster.” Anyone who has spent time in this industry knows the ride well. Booms and busts. Policy swings. Headlines declaring solar dead—followed by record-breaking growth months later.

Through it all, one thing has remained true: the skeptics always underestimate solar. And time after time, they lose their bet.

The Solarcoaster Never Derails for Long

Over the decades, solar has faced no shortage of doubters. We’ve heard that it’s too expensive, too dependent on subsidies, too variable to matter. Each downturn fuels another round of “I told you so’s.”

But those downturns never last. Costs resume their decline. Deployment resumes its climb. Technology improves. Capital keeps flowing. And the skeptics are forced to adjust their narratives once again.

The “solarcoaster” has its jolts and drops, but the long-term track always rises higher.

Why the Solar Trend Is Unstoppable

What the book made crystal clear is that solar’s march forward isn’t luck—it’s structural. Each doubling of global capacity has reliably cut costs by around 20%. That’s not wishful thinking, it’s a documented pattern that has held true across decades.

Think about that: in the mid-1970s, solar modules cost over a hundred dollars per watt. By 2010, they were under $3. Today, complete residential systems are routinely quoted around $2.50 per watt, and utility-scale solar generates electricity at just a few cents per kilowatt-hour.

And here’s the part I always emphasize: even without federal incentives, solar is now cheaper than it was five, ten, or fifteen years ago. The growth we’ve seen hasn’t just been subsidy-driven—it’s the natural outcome of scaling, innovation, and relentless cost reduction.

Lessons for Today’s Energy Transition

Reading How Solar Became Cheap also made me think about today’s other frontier technologies—batteries, EV charging, microgrids. They’re facing their own skeptics, their own “it can’t be done” critics.

But if history is any guide, the same cycle will repeat: innovation, scaling, cost decline, adoption. Solar’s story isn’t an exception—it’s a preview.

My Takeaway from the Book

What I appreciated most about the book is how it puts the volatility in perspective. The solarcoaster isn’t evidence of weakness; it’s the natural turbulence of an industry that’s disrupting trillion-dollar incumbents while scaling at unprecedented speed.

For me, it was both humbling and energizing to see the data laid out so clearly. I’d encourage anyone interested in the future of energy—whether you’re an investor, policymaker, or just an engaged citizen—to give it a read.

Because one conclusion shines through: betting against solar is a losing strategy. Always has been. Always will be.

Join Paired Power on the Solarcoaster

At Paired Power, we’ve embraced the solarcoaster—its twists, turns, and triumphs—because we believe the ride only leads upward. If you’re considering when to take the leap, now is the time. Federal tax incentives are making solar and microgrid solutions more affordable than ever, but those credits won’t last forever. Check out our post on how to take advantage of the Federal solar tax credit before it’s too late and explore how our solutions can help you harness clean energy today while saving for years to come.